Managing uncertainty

Most people are uncomfortable with uncertainty, but some find it more challenging than others. People with perfectionist tendencies are likely to find uncertainty particularly difficult, as there is no clear-cut ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ action. 

This can be a profound source of stress and self-doubt and lead to feelings of being overwhelmed. Intolerance of uncertainty refers to a tendency to react negatively on emotional, cognitive and behavioural levels to uncertain situations and events. (Buhr & Dugas, 2009). People who are find it hard to tolerate uncertainty may behave in the following ways:

• Be fixated on structure

• Have a need for constant reassurance and affirmation

• Struggle to hold a firm opinion on things

• Be risk averse

• Procrastinate, obtaining multiple opinions on a decision or course of action

• Do extensive research and information gathering

• Make multiple lists

• Worry about negative events happening, even if they are very unlikely.

The MORE model developed by Roarty and Toogood (2014) provides a strengths focused approach to leadership that provides strategies to identify and develop your own strengths and those of the people in your organisation.

More involves:

•  Myself: identifying personal strengths managing weaknesses and aligning goals and objectives with strength.

• Other’s strengths: introducing a strengths focus to others, identifying and developing their strengths and supporting them to manage their weaknesses.

• Regular Conversations: applying a strengths focus to everyday conversations, during meetings and providing strengths-focused coaching (see peer coaching in KFP Wellbeing).

• Employee processes: implementing strengths focused recruitment processes, performance appraisals and development discussions.

To prepare for the unexpected and to thrive in ambiguous circumstances are vital skills for leaders. While we cannot control the future, we can become more resilient to future uncertainties. Those who lead health and social care organisations are facing considerable uncertainty but are nonetheless tasked with formulating policies and practices to operate effectively in a post-COVID world. 

Tolerance of uncertainty is the ability to accept situations that are unclear, uncertain, or novel and work effectively in an ambiguous environment. Becoming more tolerant of uncertainty will protect leaders from being overwhelmed by change and increase their sense of control. 

Tolerance of uncertainty can be enhanced in several ways are:

• Redefining the way you see uncertainty: this will improve your ability to tolerate it. You do not have to see uncertainty as desirable, but viewing ambiguous situations as threatening or potentially dangerous will reinforce your belief that you are unable to cope with them. Remaining calm if you are unable to follow routine or habits will also be helpful.

• Creating a healthy relationship with threat: to determine the likelihood of an event occurring, you must use your rational mind rather than your anxious mind. Remind yourself that these are challenging times, and we are all operating in a crisis, so a degree of anxiety is to be expected. Adopting an optimistic (but realistic) attributional style and seeing difficult situations as temporary and situational and not permanent and pervasive, will help you put uncertainty into perspective.

• Think flexibly and embrace complexity: allow information that you know to be accurate to shift your thinking and positively influence your behaviour. Viewing situations as spectrums rather than dichotomies (i.e. good/bad, right/wrong etc.) will open up new possibilities for change.

• Take control: being passive and avoiding action puts you in a position of powerlessness. Make suggestions even if you do not have all the answers and use your judgement even though you are unsure of the outcome. This will help you to gain a sense of mastery, competence and self-efficacy, even when circumstances are changing rapidly. At times, however, it may be more appropriate to wait a while for information and circumstances to become clearer.

• Adopt a future time perspective: dwelling on mistakes or missed opportunities can make us fearful of change, blind us to future opportunities, and discourage creativity and risk taking.

• Gather information strategically: choose when to collect information and from where to obtain it. Consider whether information gathering is actually helpful and informing, or merely another way of procrastinating or seeking reassurance.

• Problem solve: use your rational mind not your anxious mind when you formulate a plan. If you decide on a course of action when you are feeling anxious, be sure to review it the following day before implementation.

• Avoid over-relying on plans and goals: Excessive rigidity means that we are likely to reject uncertainty or ambiguity automatically. The situation is rapidly changing, and the goals that you have set yourself (or have been set by others) may not be achievable in the anticipated timeline or in the way that was envisaged.

• Break actions down into smaller steps: Trying out ideas on a smaller scale helps you evaluate the risks, while minimising any potential negative impact. This can reduce fear of the unknown. Test theories quickly and rigorously, evaluate the outcomes, and then pursue or reject that course of action.

• Embrace the inevitable: things rarely go the way we think they will. When you prepare for the worst, you are better able to deal with disaster should it arise. Negative visualisation (also known as a ‘pre-mortem’) can help you avoid emotional instability during stressful situations. Spending some time contemplating the worst plausible outcome will help you to identify what it is that you are afraid of and to anticipate and navigate setbacks.